![]() The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after they were discovered in Australia. ![]() The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. A black swan ( Cygnus atratus) in Australia ![]()
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